1. IMPACT ON FOOD ACCESS AND AVAILABILITY
Wheat and wheat products account for 25 percent of average total grain consumption in East Africa, with the highest per capita consumption in Djibouti, Eritrea and Sudan. Up to 84 percent of the wheat requirement in the region is covered by imports. Considering dependence on direct imports from Russia and Ukraine, rising global prices since the beginning of the war and significant internal challenges. Sudan, Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan are likely to be hardest hit by the ongoing conflict.
The Ukrainian government has banned the export of wheat, oats, millet, buckwheat and some other food products to forestall a food crisis and stabilize the market. The partial ban on wheat and grains by Russia from March 15th to June 30th (read here) will further restrict global supplies, which will indeed lead to shortages due to reduced wheat imports in net importer countries. The shortage could be partially offset by other alternative crops, leading to increased demand for substitute crops and driving up prices for other grains in the region.
According to WFP calculations, the access and availability of wheat-based products in Sudan is a concern given that nearly 50 percent of wheat-based products are supplied by Russia and Ukraine, while domestically produced wheat and current stocks alone meet domestic wheat needs for three months only.
With over 70 percent of total global sunflower oil production coming from Russia and Ukraine, destabilized export trade, delays and higher shipping costs will directly impact global sunflower oil supply and consequently prices, further deepening problems in the vegetable oil supply chain last year.
Russia and Ukraine provided 78 percent and 95 percent of sunflower oil imports to Kenya and Sudan, respectively.
Sudan is likely to be more vulnerable to expected conflict-related trade disruptions once existing supplies of sunflower oil are depleted.